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Asia Rebounding Rapidly, Bank Reports |
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Published: September 21, 2009 |
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HONG KONG — Asian economies slumped steeply when exports
plunged during the winter, but most of the region is now rebounding
quickly, the Asian Development Bank said in a report released on
Tuesday. |
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The multilateral institution, based in Manila, declared
that economic growth in China would be 8.2 percent this year, 1.2
percentage points higher than the bank’s forecast in March, and 8.9
percent next year. |
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The bank raised its 2009 growth
forecast for India to 6 percent, from 5 percent predicted in March, and
for developing Asian countries as a group to 3.9 percent, from 3.4
percent. |
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“Developing Asia is proving to be more
resilient to the global downturn than was initially thought,” the bank
said in a statement accompanying its semiyearly assessment. |
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A common factor among countries doing
better than expected is that they have been able to offset weak exports
by stimulating domestic demand more than anyone expected. Chinese banks
have lent heavily, while the Indian government has gone on a spending
spree. |
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Commercial banks across most of the
region also came into the global financial crisis with mostly strong
balance sheets, having become much more cautious after the Asian
financial crisis in 1997 and 1998. |
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Taiwan, whose export-dependent economy
has limited scope for increasing domestic demand, and Kazakhstan, whose
banks lent too much as oil prices soared over the last several years,
were among countries that had their growth forecasts downgraded in the
report. |
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The speed of the recovery in Asia has
renewed a debate over “decoupling” — the idea that growth in the region
is becoming less closely correlated with that of the West. Some
commercial banks have promoted the concept to suggest that Asian
economies, and their stock markets, have become more stable and worthy
of investment. |
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But Ajay Kapur, chief of global
strategy and economics at Mirae Asset Securities, one of South Korea’s
biggest financial services companies, said Asian economies might now be
showing even wider swings in economic output in response to changes in
the West. |
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“Economies tied to global trade fell
harder in the crisis and are bouncing back with more vigor,” he said.
“This is the opposite of decoupling.” |
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Jong-wha Lee, the chief economist of
the Asian Development Bank, said the region had shown during the Asian
financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 that it was too vulnerable to
financial instability because of international investment flows. |
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During the current downturn, he added,
the region may have shown that it was too vulnerable to instability in
the level of global trade. |
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At a news conference on Tuesday in
Hong Kong to release the report, Mr. Lee called for a series of measures
like encouraging more long-term foreign investments and strengthening
demand for Asia to limit the region’s reliance on exports. |
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But he was cautious when asked whether
Asian governments should slow their heavy intervention in currency
markets, which has held down the value of the Chinese renminbi in
particular and has made Chinese and other Asian goods seem very
inexpensive when exported to the West. |
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Currency appreciation is a taboo
subject in much of Asia, as exporters are wary of anything that might
dent their sales, profits and levels of employment. Mr. Lee encouraged
China to allow more “flexibility” in its currency, which closely tracks
the dollar and has plunged with the dollar this summer against the euro
and many other countries, but he stopped short of saying that
flexibility should lead to appreciation. |
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China has experimented with letting
the renminbi fluctuate from day to day, but has halted any broad rise
against the dollar for the last 14 months. |
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http://www.nytimes.com |
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