New Delhi: In six years, every Indian will own a mobile phone, theoretically at least. According to an expert committee of the department of telecommunications (DoT), mobile density is likely to more than double to 86.66 per 100 persons by 2015.

India's population is estimated to touch 1,280.85 million by that year. In other words, barring kids, who can't own mobiles, everyone will have a cellphone by 2015. That's 100% coverage, though the absolutely poor won't have one, and some will have multiple mobiles. The DoT panel also said the mobile base is expected to grow 150% to 1,110 million by the end of 2015.

Currently, there are 479 million phone users (both mobile and landline) in the country and the overall teledensity is at 41.08%. As of July 31, the mobile subscriber base was at 441.66 million, while mobile density weighed in at 33.71% as of end-March.

On an average, the mobile subscriber base is growing by 13-14 million every month, but the landline user base is on the decline. The government's target, as per the 11th Plan, was to reach a telecom subscriber base of 600 million by 2012.

However, the expert committee has now revised that estimate. According to it, mobile base will be at 558.88 million by end-2010, 680.02 million by 2011, 797.80 million by 2012, 909.96 million by 2013, 1014.36 million by 2014 and 1,109.98 million by 2015.
Mobile density is seen almost doubling to 64.69% by end-2012.

The committee, however, admits that it is difficult to predict subscriber growth at this stage "as it is still in the exponential growth phase." According to it, the inflexion point at which the maximum growth rate is expected is at a mobile density of 44%, seen sometime during the end of 2010. "After this point, the growth rate is expected to decline."